Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 4.797958 5.734471 6.775818 8.015358 9.446141 11.041232 12.949302
2025-02-16 3.323521 4.485974 5.913682 7.778884 10.132047 12.981436 16.669425
2025-02-23 2.379301 3.574787 5.175140 7.436565 10.505667 14.476294 19.942933
2025-03-02 1.750424 2.899659 4.561665 7.077360 10.711880 15.682687 22.883941
2025-03-09 1.398327 2.525765 4.270097 7.070449 11.334346 17.439634 26.658552
2025-03-16 1.144455 2.240334 4.044128 7.097600 11.968314 19.227448 30.587412
2025-03-23 0.941638 1.991020 3.822511 7.079691 12.501755 20.880860 34.419734
2025-03-30 0.740158 1.695531 3.466260 6.776218 12.525018 21.731234 37.076794
2025-04-06 0.620489 1.528144 3.303177 6.769705 13.016179 23.329654 40.981492
2025-04-13 0.518174 1.371443 3.130455 6.714545 13.404347 24.773980 44.722756
2025-04-20 0.475308 1.334749 3.184130 7.082967 14.566771 27.578945 50.857323
2025-04-27 0.426227 1.271974 3.172986 7.320291 15.505882 30.062118 56.603807
2025-05-04 0.388254 1.230212 3.204908 7.657628 16.683033 33.078769 63.516402
2025-05-11 0.330023 1.121506 3.071231 7.636525 17.172625 34.915472 68.519817
2025-05-18 0.266921 0.980937 2.837833 7.368130 17.142995 35.801119 71.897964
2025-05-25 0.212192 0.846742 2.592433 7.034217 16.937569 36.331660 74.654427
2025-06-01 0.181934 0.778734 2.499997 7.034972 17.421934 38.191966 79.941999
2025-06-08 0.157342 0.721454 2.424687 7.064610 17.967079 40.201106 85.617016
2025-06-15 0.134780 0.663449 2.335858 7.047655 18.404999 42.022691 91.034250
2025-06-22 0.107492 0.576637 2.145780 6.745662 18.168728 42.466549 93.818358
2025-06-29 0.092356 0.532397 2.073394 6.739272 18.608372 44.316744 99.445878
2025-07-06 0.078366 0.487061 1.987801 6.684361 18.926056 45.929356 104.684830
2025-07-13 0.074585 0.487366 2.051126 7.051368 20.291635 49.842395 114.743940